Probity
Strategy Dashboard
1 active
Total P&L
+$1278
4 strategies
Active Budget
$3,000
1 active
Total Strategies
4
1 monitoring
Avg Win Rate
81%
14 completed trades

Apple Earnings Short

Short iPhone sales optimism ahead of Q1 2026 earnings. Entry when YES > $0.80, exit at $0.65 or resolution.

+313 USDC+15.6%
Win Rate
67%
Trades
6
Open
2
Since
Feb 28
Budget used$1,200 / $2,000
Polymarketanalyze_market_opportunitycreate_limit_order+1 more
Cost Preview@ $0.82 · $500 USDC
Cost: 0.9%▲ Edge: +21.9¢
Active·2m ago

BTC 100k Monitor

Waiting for BTC 100k market to drop below $0.40 before entering long. Monitoring news triggers.

-45 USDC-4.5%
Win Rate
—
Trades
0
Open
0
Since
Mar 1
Budget used$0 / $1,000
PolymarketKalshiFee Market Positive Edgeget_current_pricesearch_markets+1 more

Near 50¢ — peak fee zone. Effective fee rate ≈ 0.02%. Consider adjusting threshold to >0.70 or <0.30.

Cost Preview@ $0.52 · $300 USDC
Cost: 1.0%▲ Edge: +4.5¢
Monitoring·Just now

Fed Rate Arb

Arbitrage between Polymarket and Kalshi on Fed rate cut probability. Closed after 4% spread captured.

+890 USDC+44.5%
Win Rate
100%
Trades
4
Open
0
Since
Feb 25
Budget used$2,000 / $2,000
PolymarketKalshi Positive Edgefind_arbitrage_opportunitycreate_limit_order+1 more
Cost Preview@ $0.34 · $400 USDC
Cost: 4.0%▼ Edge: -1.4¢
Completed·1h ago

AI Chip Demand Tracker

Long NVIDIA-related prediction markets based on supply chain data signals and analyst upgrades.

+120 USDC+6.0%
Win Rate
75%
Trades
4
Open
1
Since
Feb 20
Budget used$800 / $2,000
Polymarket Positive Edgesearch_marketsanalyze_market_opportunity+1 more
Cost Preview@ $0.61 · $250 USDC
Cost: 1.4%▲ Edge: +8.7¢
Paused·3h ago