Agent-Native Prediction Market Platform

Where agents and humans
predict the future

Stop clicking through dashboards. Deploy AI agents that monitor Polymarket and Kalshi, detect opportunities, execute strategies, and manage risk — while you focus on the thesis.

AAPL Q1 YES$0.82+0.03
BTC 100k YES$0.52-0.01
Fed Cut YES$0.34+0.02
AI Chip YES$0.61+0.01
30+
MCP Tools
2
Platforms
<50ms
Arb Detection
Parallel Agents
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Live Demo

See the agent in action

One natural language command triggers a full research → proposal cycle.

probity — command center
Press Run Demo to see the agent work
Core Capabilities

Built for the agent era

Every feature is designed around the premise that AI agents should do the heavy lifting.

Agent-Native Interface

Natural language commands deploy complex strategies. No manual order entry. You're the commander, not the clerk.

MCP Tool Ecosystem

30+ atomic tools across Polymarket & Kalshi. search_markets, analyze_market_opportunity, find_arbitrage_opportunity — all callable by your agent.

Cross-Platform Arbitrage

Real-time semantic matching across platforms. Detect price divergence on the same event before the market corrects.

Portfolio Risk Layer

Aggregate exposure across all running agents. Know your total risk before a position, not after.

The Edge You're Missing

Prediction markets run on hidden information

Most traders see the same price feed. The real edge lives in the signals that never make it to the dashboard — until now.

What the market doesn't surface
Breaking news latency
A regulatory filing drops at 3am. By the time you read it, market makers have already repriced.
Social sentiment shifts
Retail conviction on X/Reddit changes 6-12 hours before it moves the orderbook. No one tracks this continuously.
Resolution rule ambiguity
Market rules have edge cases. Traders who read them carefully win disputes. Most don't read them at all.
Cross-market correlation
A YES at 72¢ on Polymarket and 68¢ on Kalshi for the same event. The 4¢ gap closes in minutes — if you're watching.
Multi-agent continuous intelligence
NewsAgentmonitor_news_feed
Monitors 40+ sources in real time. Flags events with >15% probability impact before they hit the orderbook.
SentimentAgentanalyze_social_signal
Tracks X, Reddit, Telegram. Detects conviction shifts 6-12h before price moves. Filters noise with LLM scoring.
RulesAgentscore_resolution_risk
Parses market resolution rules. Flags ambiguous language, edge cases, and historical dispute patterns.
ArbAgentfind_arbitrage_opportunity
Watches Polymarket + Kalshi simultaneously. Triggers alert when semantic match + price gap > fee threshold.

Aggregated signal → structured opportunity

Each agent runs independently, but Probity's orchestration layer aggregates their outputs into a single opportunity score — combining news impact, sentiment delta, resolution risk, and cross-platform spread into one actionable signal. You don't monitor 4 agents. You receive one ranked opportunity list, ready to act on.

Why Now

The agentic economy is about to break open

2025 was the year agents became capable. 2026 is the year they start generating real returns — and prediction markets are the first arena where that's provably true.

01

LLM reasoning crossed the threshold

GPT-4o and Claude 3.5 now outperform human forecasters on structured prediction tasks. The AIA Forecaster won Metaculus's AI benchmark with a calibrated Brier score of 0.14 — better than 90% of human superforecasters.

0.14 Brier score
AIA Forecaster vs humans
02

Prediction markets hit escape velocity

$44B in 2025 volume. Kalshi received CFTC approval for event contracts. Polymarket hit 679K monthly active users. The liquidity is now deep enough for systematic strategies to operate without moving the market.

$44B
2025 prediction market volume
03

The tooling window is open — briefly

Polymarket's Builder Program launched Q4 2024. The MCP protocol standardized agent tool interfaces in early 2025. The infrastructure exists. The agent tooling layer for prediction markets is still empty. That gap closes fast.

Q4 2024
Polymarket Builder Program launch

Why agents win on prediction markets specifically

No sleep premium — Markets resolve 24/7. A human misses the 3am news drop. An agent doesn't.
Calibrated probability — LLMs assign structured probabilities. Humans anchor to round numbers (50%, 70%). The gap is exploitable.
Cost discipline — Agents never chase a trade. They enforce the net-edge threshold on every single order, every time.
Parallel coverage — One agent monitors 1 market. Ten agents monitor 10 markets simultaneously. Human attention doesn't scale.

The compounding return thesis

Month 1-3Agent learns your markets
Month 4-6Calibration improves with resolved markets
Month 7-12Edge compounds: better data → better signals
Year 2+Proprietary signal moat vs. manual traders
Unlike static quant strategies, agent performance improves with every resolved market — the model updates, the calibration sharpens, the edge widens.

Ready to deploy your first agent?

Start with a natural language instruction. Your agent handles the rest.